GENESIS OF RUSSIAN INFLUENCE IN MONTENEGRO: WHY THE WEST SHOULD BE CONCERNED?

GENESIS OF RUSSIAN INFLUENCE IN MONTENEGRO: WHY THE WEST SHOULD BE CONCERNED?

Does anyone remember former US President Donald Trump’s statement regarding  Montenegro from July 2018, made as he spoke for FOX television on the occasion of  Montenegro’s accession to NATO: “Montenegro is a tiny country with very strong  people… They’re very aggressive people. They may get aggressive, and congratula 

tions, you’re in World War III”.1 There were numerous reports about the statement  the leading news agencies across the globe. At that time, it merely seemed as yet  another media blunder made by Donald Trump. However, viewed from a distance  and in the context of current events in Europe, Ukraine and the Balkans, the state 

ment is significant in many ways. Trump’s “policy of yielding” to Russian influence  and Putin’s regime, supported by his visions of restructuring the collective security  system and amending Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty (collective defense),  rightly led Fox’s prime-time host at the time Carlson Tucker to ask the American  president the following question – “Why should my son go to Montenegro to de fend it from attack?”2 Montenegro’s accession to NATO in 2017 was an important  step for the organization as it meant that the last piece of the European part of  the Mediterranean outside the North Atlantic security system became part of the  NATO zone. Of course, this could not but annoy the Russians, who have seen the  Montenegrin Adriatic coast as their sphere of interest since the 19th century. As a  result, since 2017, Russian pressure and influence in Montenegro has been abruptly  intensifying in the form of hybrid and malignant activity, financing of pro-Russian  political parties and strengthening of the Russian “soft power”, which led Monte negro to great social instability, potentially dangerous for global security.3 

Back to reality: The pro-EU Prime Minister with pro-Russian elements inside the Government  

A few months before Trump’s defeat in the US, which he and his supporters are yet  to accept, on the last day of August 2020, the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS)  and its leader Milo Đukanović lost power in Montenegro after three decades, al though he remained in office as the President of Montenegro until May 2023. 

The long-term and almost absolute three-decade rule of Đukanović was primarily  marked by his courageous move of 1997, when he opposed Slobodan Milošević’s  criminal policy that led to the Balkan wars in the 90s, turning Montenegro towards  the West, while simultaneously managing to skillfully balance different interests  to avoid any direct conflicts that could have resulted in bloodshed in multi-eth nic and multi-confessional Montenegro. Throughout that period, Đukanović’s  rule included extraordinary and strategically wise statehood and foreign policy  decisions. However, the period was also marked by a number of critical mistakes  internally – including those in the form of uncurbed corruption, crime, nepotism  and cronyism, which altogether created a conducive ground for the pro-Serbian  nationalist forces to use the opportunity to come to power. Financially and logis tically supported from abroad and inside, with strong and overt leadership of the  Serbian Orthodox Church (SOC), which has never come to terms with the “loss” of  Montenegro as they perceive its regained independence from Serbia, these forces  carried out a clerical revolution known as “litiyás”, held under the populist slogans  such as “We won’t give our holy places.”4 

Nevertheless, the celebrations and chanting about the “refreshed and most demo cratic Montenegro ever”, supported even by many Western allies, soon turned into  an unpleasantly surprising nightmare. Not for the true pro-Western advocates in  the country, though – they kept pointing out that everything that was left from  the European and Euro-Atlantic course were empty phrases that the new majority  knew Brussels and Washington bureaucrats wanted to hear, while on the ground,  their real work to further clericalize and infuse the country with Serbian and Russian influence carried on with all available means. 

Those who, only ten years ago, explained to the public “that NATO is not in the  interest of Montenegro” (specifically, the current Minister of Foreign Affairs, Filip  Ivanović5) have now adopted European rhetoric. Instead of being used for the re form processes, the money from the European funds, i.e., EU taxpayers is being  used for clericalization of Montenegrin society and its subjugation, as a sovereign state and a NATO member, to the only country in the region that has territorial  claims against its neighbors – Serbia, and through it, Russia as well. During the  yet incomplete term of Joe Biden in the White House, Montenegro has already had  three governments – from the autumn “refresh” of 2020 to the autumn of 2023. All  of the governments are, however, including the same majority from August 2020,  despite numerous mutual frictions, fragmentations and splits. 

As for the Finance Minister of the so-called “first apostolic government” of 2020  and current Prime Minister, Milojko Spajić, a combination of various circumstanc es has given him an opportunity to tear Montenegro away from the claws of those  that brought him to power and to lead it where it belongs – in the European and  Western family of nations. Internally, these circumstances included the disas trous results of his two predecessors, the fact that of all the other political actors  from the once unique coalition he is the least (publicly) favored in official Belgrade  (therefore, in Moscow too), and the call of irresistible populism embodied in the  salary increase, referred to under the code name Europe Now 1 (Europe Now 2 has  also been promised), as well as, from the global perspective, increasingly unstable  world in which the Balkans are always a suitable ground for various influences (es 

pecially malignant ones).6 

Although the EU doors have remained wide open for Montenegro and although  EU and US officials, as well as all the country’s neighbors (except Serbia), are very  loud in encouraging Montenegro to cross the finish line, Spajić’s task, as absurdly  as it may be, is a daunting one. Namely, on top of the fact that the previous two  governments, including the first one in which he participated, completely stopped  the EU integration process, persistently turned the compass towards the Kremlin  and Belgrade, and enabled a NATO country to become an open polygon for malig nant Russian influence, he possibly may have to overcome some opponents of the  idea even in his own cabinet. 

The chance for PM Spajić to do the right thing despite the unveiled Russian threats 

The main problem here can be defined as a question – how to cross the EU acces sion finish line and avoid the obstacles set even by actors from the inner circle,  who in the last three and a half years worked diligently to ensure that Montenegro  does not join the EU, as this would, in their view, on top of NATO accession in 2017,  be another important step in moving away from malignant and retrograde influ ences with authoritarian tendencies from Russia and Serbia.  

Meanwhile, as this new opportunity for Montenegro to pass through the Euro pean doors has re-appeared once again, more reachable than before, Vladislav  Maslenikov, the Russian ambassador in Podgorica, explicitly threatened the coun try by saying – in an extensive interview for the Russian media outlet “Izvestia” of  February 2024 – that Montenegro’s accession to the EU would mean confronta tion with Russia.7 

When it comes to the Western Balkans, Russia has only so far considered the ex pansion of NATO as a threat. In the case of Montenegro, however, another com parison is applicable – the one with Ukraine, from the period of the first invasion  in 2013/2014, which was followed by the annexation of Crimea and the war oper ations in the East of Ukraine, Donetsk and Luhansk. The reason for the first Rus sian aggression against Ukraine was the strategic decision of the country to join  

the EU accession process (the head of Ukraine at that time was the pro-Russian  President Viktor Yanukovych, who fled on the eve of the annexation of Crimea to  Russia, where he still lives in exile). 

There are, of course, a couple of important differences, with the key one Monte negro being a NATO member, regardless of the fact that none of its current lead ers supported that membership when it was decided upon in 2017. Also, Russia  is not bordering Montenegro, but its main proxy in the Balkans – Serbia, is, and  its leaders, every now and then, openly express Serbia’s territorial pretensions to wards Montenegro. Through influence from Serbia, the powerful SOC, and the lo cal players who are now in positions of power, Russia has more than enough room  for maneuver, malicious activities and attempts to thwart PM Spajić from taking  advantage of the historical opportunity that was given to him, of finally doing the  right thing for Montenegro and for the region as a whole. 

Why is Montenegro important to Russia? 

Montenegro is a small Balkan country on the coast of the Adriatic Sea with about  630,000 inhabitants. It regained its independence from Serbia in a democratic  referendum in 2006. Since then, it has profiled itself in international politics as a  country that strives to Euro-Atlantic integration. The country’s greatest foreign  policy achievement is its accession to NATO in 2017. Decades-long dependence on  Serbia made the Serbian factor in the country alive and active. Pro-Serbian par ties, organizations, and above all – very strong and powerful Serbian Orthodox  Church (SOC) have not lost their power once Montenegro regained its independ 

ence in 2006, but worked for years on their infrastructure and strengthening their  presence in the already multi-ethnic Montenegrin society, where in addition to  45% of national Montenegrins and about 20% of the Bosniak, Albanian, Croat and  Roma minorities, there are almost 30% national Serbs. It was precisely the strong  influence of the Serbian Orthodox Church, along with dramatic social changes in  the 1990s during the wars in the former Yugoslavia, that contributed to a signifi cant change in the national structure of the country during that turbulent decade,  although there were no major demographic changes. Namely, in the period be 

tween the censuses conducted in 1991 and 2003, the number of ethnic Montene grins dropped from 61% to around 45%, while the number of ethnic Serbs increased  from 9% to over 30%. The fact that a significant number of Montenegrin citizens  changed their national self-expression during a decade is a consequence of the  aggressive campaign of the Serbian Orthodox Church, which abuses the fact that  both Serbs and Montenegrins are dominantly Orthodox, implementing a kind of  assimilation of national Montenegrins by soft power.8 The national preferences of  the Orthodox part of the Montenegrin population are not based on ethnic origin,  but are predominantly ideological in nature, so the pro-Western Orthodox popula 

tion predominantly nationally identifies with the ethnonym Montenegrins, while  those who opt for Serbian national self-expression are dominantly associated  with anti-Western and pro-Russian political sentiment. Therefore, national divi sions in Montenegro do not depict clear borders between national groups, but of ten pass through families themselves. Strong pro-Russian emotions among a part  of Montenegrin citizens with a pro-Serbian orientation and large Russian invest ments in Montenegro in the period of 2006-2010 made Russia look at Montenegro  with particular attention. As soon as it became clear that Montenegro would join  NATO, the Russians activated all possible tools to destabilize the country. Serbia  and the regime of Aleksandar Vučić also found an interest in this endeavor, in an  attempt to become a key regional player in the Western Balkans through the poli 

cy of undermining the independence of Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina and  Kosovo. Although sometimes it is not necessarily a matter of coordinated actions,  Russian and Serbian interference in Montenegro and the region are motivated by  the same goals.

When did the Russian factor activate in Montenegro? 

In 2013, there was a request for Montenegro to permit the entry, anchoring and  repair of Russian ships in the Port of Bar and Port of Bijela on the Adriatic coast.  Montenegro refused this request, and the punishment came soon, as access to  the Adriatic (and Mediterranean) Sea through Montenegro remains a long-stand 

ing obsession of pro-Serbian and pro-Russian nationalist forces. In 2015, Montene gro’s pro-Western foreign policy received a lot of criticism from the Kremlin. At the  same time, anti-NATO protests by pro-Russian political parties began, led by the  Democratic Front (renamed in 2023 as the “For the Future of Montenegro”), which  represents the interests of Serbs in Montenegro, as well as by Serbian and Rus sian cultural organizations and activists, with the important support of the pow erful Serbian Orthodox Church.9 The protests lasted for two weeks without final  success, and ended with an aggressive action by the Montenegrin police, which  caused a deep political crisis.10 Following these events, and ahead of general elec tions in Montenegro, Russia changed its tactics in 2016 – from mass protests to a  complex coup d’état operation.11 In contact with politicians from the Democrat ic Front, the Russian GRU (the military intelligence service) planned to violently  enter the Montenegrin Parliament, take control of the institutions and prevent  Montenegro from joining NATO.12 Thanks to a coordinated action of the Montene grin and Western security services, such a scenario was prevented. The entire coup  d’état operation had a judicial epilogue that was broadcast for months on national  television, whereby the public was made aware of the evidence against the sus pected politicians from the Democratic Front.  It has been proven in the first in stance that they planned a coup d’état and a violent change in the constitutional  order directly with the Russian GRU and agents recruited in Serbia. The leaders of  the Democratic Front, MPs Andrija Mandić and Milan Knežević, were sentenced  to five years in prison each, and their associates to seven years in prison. Howev er, the state did not find the strength to arrest them, so the politicians from the Democratic Front continued to engage in politics. The first-instance verdict was  quashed by the Court of Appeal, and the process was returned to the beginning.  The High Court in Podgorica is conducting a repeated trial, with a new prosecutor  and judge – the prosecutors from the first trial are being held in custody for alleged  ties with organized crime. At the same time, Andrija Mandić is the Speaker of the  Parliament of Montenegro and Milan Knežević is a member of the ruling majority.13 

These events from 2016 were closely monitored by then Serbian Prime Minister  Aleksandar Vučić, who initially offered to send the data collected by the Serbian  Security Information Agency (BIA) regarding the case to Montenegrin counter parts, since a group of Serbian citizens was directly involved in the Russian plot.  Yet, a twist followed after a high-ranking official of the Russian intelligence ser vice Nikolai Patrushev flew into Belgrade and held a meeting with Serbian lead ers.14 After that meeting, Aleksandar Vučić refused to cooperate with Montenegrin  institutions and prevented the sharing of data. This can be considered a turning  point in the relations between Montenegro and Serbia, because after Patrushev’s  visit to Belgrade, the rhetoric of the Serbian state officials towards Montenegro  changed completely, which eventually led, only a few years later, to the expulsion  of the Serbian ambassador from Montenegro, as well as to an attack on the Mon tenegrin Embassy in Belgrade. 

When did the pro-Russian forces come to power in Montenegro? 

Before 2020, the then ruling government, composed of DPS and its coalition part ners (social-democrats and the parties of minorities), believed that NATO member ship would resolve all security issues and that Montenegro would be completely  protected from Russian interference. In reality, this could not be further away from  the truth. After it failed to prevent Montenegro’s accession to NATO, Russia realized  that it could turn the tables for its benefit – with a view to conquer the Montenegrin  security sector it started to increasingly rely on the pro-Serbian parties in Montene gro, helping them rise to power. It was back in 2015, at the Strategic Forum organ ized in Belgrade by the Russian Organization in Serbia “Strategic Culture Fund” that  one of the main pro-Russian activists in Montenegro (close to DF), university profes sor Vladimir Božović (who will become the Rector of the only state-owned Universi ty in Montenegro after August 2020) proposed that the Russian strategy in Monte negro is changed.15Božović suggested that Russia should rely more on the Serbian  Orthodox Church (SOC), given that Montenegro’s population included 80% Ortho dox Christians and that the Montenegrin Orthodox Church was destroyed back in  1918, which meant that the Serbian church was the only canonically recognized Or thodox institution. Rector Božović is also one of the founders of the organization of  Matica srpska in Montenegro and the media outlet IN4S, a controversial news por tal infamous for spreading hate speech, targeting non-Serb population, labeling in dependent intellectuals and civic activists and openly promoting Russian interests,  as was demonstrated during the occupation of Donbas and Crimea and after Putin’s  aggression in Ukraine, when its reporters and columnists spread misinformation on  events in Ukraine, glorifying Putin and his criminal endeavor. Meanwhile, the IN4S  news portal has been identified by the US State Department as an integral part of  the Russian disinformation and propaganda ecosystem.16 Eventually, the SOC did  prove to be the holder of the process of taking over Montenegrin institutions by the  pro-Serbian and pro-Russian parties. In 2019, the Serbian church in Montenegro  started protests against Montenegrin government due to its efforts to pass a Law  on Freedom of Religion, which would finally give legal status to all church organi zations in Montenegro.17 Through cunning action and aggressive propaganda, the  Serbian church managed to depict the state’s effort to regulate the church status in  accordance with the law as a struggle of the socially deprived for human rights and  change in long-standing power – thus, with the intensive assistance from Serbia  and the media, they managed to mobilize the voters and change the pro-Western  government in Montenegro in 2020, in midst of the coronavirus pandemic. It was  an overt and blatant meddling of a religious institution in national politics. Yet, as  the western world was busy with coronavirus and the lock-down effects, Russia  and Serbia conducted a “quiet” revolution in Montenegro through Serbian Orthodox  Church and pro-Serbian political parties, generously financing the political actors  that won the parliamentary elections. It is important to note that the legitimacy  for the takeover of power by the pro-Russian and pro-Serbian parties in 2020 was  provided by the so-called green civic movement URA led by Dritan Abazović, which  was self-presented as progressive and pro-Western party. Since then, the country’s  collapse has started and Montenegro has become the focus of a malignant impact  on the Western Balkans. 

Russian and Serbian agents control a NATO member’s security sector and resources 

The removal of DPS from power after long-standing rule has caused a huge shock  in the country. The power was now held by political parties that were against  Montenegro’s independence and which, in the parliamentary campaign, empha sized the importance of relations with Russia, supporting the idea of revoking  the recognition of Kosovo’s independence and taking more active approach in the  direction of getting Montenegro closer to Serbia and strengthening pro-Serbian  and pro-Russian sentiment. The main levers in the new government were in the  hands of the Democratic Front, the same party whose leaders were convicted of  an attempted coup d’état just a few years ago. The new government formed in  December 2020 was a true international and security scandal. In order to get a  clear idea of what happened in Montenegro with that government, it is sufficient  to reflect on three high-level state functions – PM Zdravko Krivokapić, who stat ed that his political role model was former Iranian PM Muhammad Ahmadinejad;  Dejan Vukšić, a lawyer of criminal clans and Russian businessean and an official of  the Democratic Front, who became the Director of the National Security Agency  (ANB); and Vladimir Leposavić, a Minister of Justice who refused to acknowledge  the verdicts of the Hague Tribunal related to war crimes and genocide in Srebren ica. The Russian-Serbian strategy for taking over key resources and institutions  in the country started to be implemented.18 The new government in Montenegro  led to a sudden influx of Serbian investments in Montenegro. In a few months, all  important media outlets in the country were purchased by Serbian businessmen.  Due to political pressures, the public broadcaster and local TV stations owned by  local governments have changed their editorial policy in favor of the Serbian nar ratives. The Serbian Orthodox Church became an extremely powerful factor and  the main center for appointment of politicians in the authorities – moreover – the  Government of Montenegro formed in December 2020 was officially agreed upon  in an Orthodox monastery in the presence of Serbian church clergy. The church  came to play the role of “moral” authority and social power, while implementing  serious strategic operations to the benefit of Serbian and Russian policies in Mon tenegro, as was observed in the European Commission’s report after the Russian  aggression in Ukraine in which it characterized Serbian Orthodox Church as one of  the tools of Russian influence.19 

The most important state resources – the thermal power plant and the coal mine  in Pljevlja, the Port of Bar on the Adriatic Sea and the country’s electricity company  and distribution network (EPCG/CEDIS) – are now managed by verified pro-Rus sian personnel. Since their sale to companies from Serbia and Russia would be too  obvious and could cause resistance, the government decided to buy back shares in  these important companies under the guise of “protecting national interests”, only  to appoint pro-Russian and pro-Serbian personnel in the management boards and  to executive positions and thus put them under the control of Russian-Serbian  interests. Those directors and management boards have immediately started to  finance and sponsor the SOC activities with millions of Euros. In short – we effec 

tively have taxpayers’ money in a NATO member state used for pro-Russian inter ests. Air transportation in Montenegro was solved differently – the national airline  “Montenegro Airlines” was immediately liquidated by the new government, only  for Serbian national company “Air Serbia” to benefit the most from its termination,  as it was allowed to take over the main routes of the Montenegrin company. 

War in Ukraine: The US and the EU pressures to fix the situation in Montenegro 

After Russian aggression in Ukraine, the Western democracies began to take more  seriously the depth of Russian channels in Montenegro. National and religious di visions in the country, which would certainly cause it to resemble Lebanon in the  event of an outbreak of internal conflict, forced the USA and the EU to take a more  active approach. The idea led to the aforementioned attempt to form a pro-west ern minority government with Dritan Abazović as a PM, without new parliamen tary elections and with strong EU promises that Montenegro would soon be the  first next member of the EU. In return, Montenegro was requested to implement  technical changes in the judiciary, with the instructions to reform the security sec tor. High-level representatives of the EU began to visit Montenegro, giving encour aging statements about Montenegro’s accession to the EU, while Savo Kentera, a  professional close to the US, was appointed as the Director of the NSA. Although  part of the Montenegrin public was suspicious of Abazović’s true intentions, as he  was the one who had enabled the clerical 2020 government to be formed and the  security sector to be penetrated by Russian and Serbian agents, the new govern ment was formed in 2022. Yet, it did not take long for Abazović to show his true  intentions. As a PM, he promptly replaced Kentera, who had managed to reveal  a network of over 50 Russian spies in Montenegro and a huge operation of cig arette smuggling in the port of Bar in which Abazović’s close friend and political  associate was involved.20 Furthermore, despite receiving a no-confidence vote for  his government in the Parliament, Abazović moved on to remove from office both  the Minister of Defense and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Raško Konjević and  Ranko Krivokapić, politicians who were a guarantee that Montenegro would not  turn away from the Euro-Atlantic agenda. Just as he was supposed to implement  the required judicial reforms that would bring Montenegro back on the European  track, Abazović decided to meet the interests of SOC and the Serbian president in stead and signed the so-called “Fundamental Agreement” with SOC, de facto trans 

ferring the ownership rights over a total of 52 km2 of Montenegro’s territory to the  Serbian Orthodox Patriarchy of Belgrade.21 Thus, all the Christian Orthodox sacral  heritage of Montenegro became the property of the Belgrade Patriarchate and  was alienated from its parent state. As a result, Abazović’s government received  a no confidence vote in the Parliament, which effectively shattered the country’s  EU accession dreams. Yet, he continued to rule the country under a technical man date, destroying it further. Since the start of Russian aggression in Ukraine and  the beginning of the Abazović’s mandate, as many as 4,000 Russian companies  were established in Montenegro. In April 2023, the production of Russian vodka  “Beluga”, banned from the EU market, started in Montenegro.22 As a result, the EU  has frozen negotiations and began publishing negative annual reports with the  warnings of Russian and Serbian interference in internal affairs of Montenegro. 

Is Montenegro living a Ukrainian scenario and is Serbia imitating Russia and Iran? 

Parallels between Ukraine and Montenegro – both in a historical perspective and  in a modern context – are more than obvious. Just as Vladimir Putin promoted the  doctrine of the “Russian World” as an official ideology before the aggression, the  current regime in Serbia, imitating his actions, promoted the concept of the “Ser 

bian World”.23 The foundations of Belgrade’s expansionist policy in Montenegro  were defined by the original text of the Serbia’s Government Strategy of 2011, on  Serbia’s action with regard to Serbs living in the region: one of the goals set in that  document is a request for changes of the Constitution of Montenegro, in order for  Serbs to become a constitutive people. After a prompt reaction of Montenegro,  this request was withdrawn from the Strategy, but the document itself has turned  out to be a long-term plan for destabilization of countries neighboring Serbia that  have a greater or lesser percentage of Serbs in their population. Strong financial  support from Serbia aimed at strengthening the influence of the Serbian Ortho dox Church and numerous organizations and the media outlets in Montenegro in  the past decade reveals that it is a carefully designed and implemented project.  The closest Vučić’s associates – such as a newly appointed Vice PM of Serbia who  was also a former Director of the National Security Agency, Aleksandar Vulin, a  person under US sanctions, openly talk about the ambition to change the borders  in the Balkans, referring to the concept of the “Serbian World” since 2020. Mean 

while, Metropolitan of the SOC in Montenegro Joanikije Mićović publicly referred  to Montenegro a “small Ukraine”, saying that the country would have to return  to the alleged “roots”, i.e., the integral Serbian state.24 The highest dignitaries of  the SOC in Montenegro openly glorify Russia and Putin in their public address 

es, promoting anti-western stereotypes aggressively. In addition, the argument  about Ukraine as the Russian “historical territory”, originally used by Putin, is con stantly repeated in Montenegro by the clergy of the SOC. Recently, SOC Patriarch  Porfirije Perić called upon the citizens of Montenegro to declare that they speak  Serbian language in the population census in Montenegro, which is in direct con flict with the constitutional definition of Montenegro as a state of citizens, and  its multi-ethnic and multi-cultural being. There is no doubt that such messages  are intended to portray Montenegro as a dysfunctional country, subordinated to  Serbia in political, economic and cultural terms, after which its constitutional re modeling would ensue for the Serbs to become a constitutive people. This way,  the country would soon be transformed from a civil state into an ethno-federal  system. Introducing the concept of constituent people(s) would lay foundations  for creating a ‘Republika Srpska’ in Montenegro, which has already been proven an  effective permanent destabilizer not only of Bosnia-Herzegovina, but of the entire  region. It would be a Serbian equivalent of South Ossetia or Transnistria – Russian  footholds in Georgia and Moldova. This would permanently pave the way for full  Serbian control of Montenegro’s political orientation. 

Meanwhile, the Serbian Orthodox Church remains the most powerful tool of Rus sia and Serbia for assimilation in the Balkans, since it can exert a strong influence  among the population due to language similarity and the fact that Orthodox  Christians live in several countries. Just as Russia for years undermined Ukraine  through the Russian Orthodox Church, Serbia continues to utilize SOC to under mine three sovereign countries in the Balkans: Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzego vina and Kosovo. After several armed conflicts in Kosovo recently, international  investigations have proven that the firearms used for terrorist actions were stored  in the premises of the Serbian Orthodox Church. Also, information appeared that  firearms are being kept in the premises of the same religious organization in Mon tenegro. A corresponding situation could be found in the Islamic world in the case  of Iran, which, through the instrumentalization of Shia Islam, keeps undermining  countries like Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, forming the so-called “Shia cres cent” of influence. In the case of Serbia, theoretically, its policy of undermining the  independence of the region through the instrumentalization of Orthodox Christi anity could be called the “Serbian-Orthodox arch” in the Balkans. 

Even though the current situation in Montenegro – where pro-Russian and pro-Ser bian actors have taken over some of the key structures of power in the country  – resembles the one in Ukraine in the era of pro-Russian president Yanukovych,  there is an important difference – Montenegro is a NATO member. That fact could,  on the one hand, give ground for an assumption that, with the strongest possible  influence from the West, Montenegro could be liberated from Russian and Serbian  influence. Yet, on the other hand, this could also be a misleading point. 

It is clear that Montenegro will not be attacked from the outside for the time be ing, and it seems that this fact has largely diminished the West’s interest in the  malignant processes that have been taking place in the country for the past three  years under direct Serbian, and only seemingly less direct Russian influence. But,  it is precisely because of such a naïve and neglectful approach that anti-Western  forces have taken control over some key Montenegrin structures, now seeking to  completely undermine the country’s system and, consequently, NATO collective  security system.

CONCLUSION 

In summary, the Russian influence in Montenegro is active and strong. This in fluence is exerted through political parties in the ruling majority, through the  Serbian Orthodox Church, management in state-owned companies, and at the  level of local self-governments, where representatives of the parliamentary ma jority hold sway. The fusion to achieve Russian influence is carried out through  Serbian influence, and these two factors are complementary. All the important as pects of pro-Serbian policy in Montenegro serve the interests of Russian influence.  Russians are trying to whip up anti-Western hysteria in Montenegro, which is a  well-known and recognizable Russian approach in democratic countries. The fact  alone that Russia has invested so much political and financial capital and high-lev el interference in Montenegro should be enough to trigger serious interest from  the EU and US in the whole situation. 

At the same time, the current government, led by Prime Minister Milojko Spajić,  denies the existence of significant Russian influence. During his address to the Eu ropean Parliament in April 2024, Spajić downplayed Russian influence, emphasiz ing that it was at its historical minimum. The biggest challenge for Spajić is the  “stabilizer” of his cumbersome ruling majority – the coalition “For the Future of  Montenegro” (formerly Democratic Front). Leaders of this coalition, Andrija Man dić, the Speaker of the Parliament, and Milan Knežević, the Member of the Parlia ment, both staunchly and openly pro-Russian and pro-Serbian actors, constantly  pressure the government, conditioning their support with increasingly vocal de mands for more seats in the government and institutional positions. PM Spajić  and his party Europe Now are struggling to navigate through such a complex situ ation, so at times it seems that Andrija Mandić is actually running the government.  This was most evident during the coordination of Montenegro’s official stance on  the United Nations Resolution on the Genocide in Srebrenica, as both Mandić  and Knežević exerted enormous pressure in order for Montenegro to abstain from  voting, demanding that the official policy aligns more closely with Belgrade. The  same is true regarding the issue of Kosovo’s membership in the Council of Europe,  where Spajić’s party remained abstinent, although the Minister of European Af fairs, close to the PM, promised Priština authorities that Montenegro would vote  in favor of Kosovo’s admission. 

In the context of the international situation and Russia’s increasingly aggressive  incursion into Europe, the situation in Montenegro does not look promising. With  a government that neither addresses nor considers the dangers of Russian influ ence, with representatives of the parliamentary majority that were directly fi nanced by Russia in 2017, and with very pronounced ethnic and religious divisions, Montenegrin society appears to be an ideal target for provoking internal conflicts.  Therefore, it is essential to intensify the West’s action in Montenegro, primarily in  terms of economic, media, education and security aspects – or in all those spheres  where Russian influence has instruments through which it asserts its presence. 

On the other hand, is very important for Montenegro that due to both global and  regional processes, the EU apparently decided to turn a blind eye to the numerous  Montenegrin deficits, including the porosity to the Russian and Serbian malign  influence. Hopefully, after getting the IBAR (Interim Benchmark Assessment Re 

port) in June, the final step will be taken and Montenegro’s membership in the Eu ropean family of peoples and values would be approved to the benefit of all Mon tenegrin citizens. Nonetheless, it would be equally dangerous for all, Montenegro,  the EU and the NATO, if, instead of a country with a true European value system,  Montenegro would become or remain “a Russian mole” in the Western fabric.

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